Wednesday, November 03, 2010

Now that the much anticipated Republican resurgence has taken hold in the more sensible parts of the country, it's time to consider just what it would take to unseat the Marxist-in-Chief in light of our newly conservative-leaning electorate.

Let's do some simple math, starting with McCain's low watermark Electoral College results as a baseline (173). Thanks to what's expected to be some favorable migration trends in the 2010 census figures, several Republican states will gain electoral votes, mostly at the expense of Democratic states that are hemorrhaging residents fleeing excessive taxation and regulatory overreach in droves. Factoring in rough estimates of this redistricting effect, McCain's Republican Electoral College total gains 4 votes to 177.

Next, let’s review the 2008 results for states The ObaMarxist won that are most likely to flip back to the Republican column, presuming a particularly lackluster or polarizing candidate isn’t chosen. It’s a short list, but a weighty one in terms of post-redistricting electoral votes: Florida (29), Indiana (11), North Carolina (15), and possibly (hopefully?) Ohio (18). Add these combined 73 votes and we now stand at 250, a short hop from the 270 victory threshold.

It may be a short hop, but it’s a daunting one. Looking again at the 2008 results for possible Republican pickups, we’re left with few easy options. Virginia (13) appears to be the best hope for a flip given its Republican tilt in past Presidential elections. After that, what state would be next? Is Colorado (9) ready to reverse course in spite of its recent embrace of liberal idiocy? Maybe. Iowa (6)? The site of His Holiness’s ascendency? Doubtful. Nevada (6), with Harry Reid’s machine at full steam? Unlikely. New Hampshire (4)? Unpredictable. New Mexico (5)? Probably not. Pennsylvania (20)? That’s a tough road, even with the fresh Republican shift and a stalled economic recovery.

So, that's the situation as of today. Taking back the White House is doable, but let's not kid ourselves. It's likely going to be a long, grinding, bruising fight, focused on a handful of swing states. Ready to party like it's 2004?

Back of the envelope figures below:
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2008 EC Results:
DEM: 365
REP: 173
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2010 Census EC Shift:
TX +3 + ->3
FL +2 + ->5
AZ +1 + ->6
CA +1 - ->5
GA +1 + ->6
NV +1 - ->5
UT +1 + ->6
IL -1 + ->7
IA -1 + ->8
LA -1 - ->7
MA -1 + ->8
MO -1 - ->7
PA -1 + ->8
NY -2 + ->10
OH -2 - ->8
EC Net Gain: +8
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2008 EC + 2010 Shift:
DEM: 365 - 4 = 361
REP: 173 + 4 = 177
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Likely Changes:
FL 29
IN 11
NC 15
OH 18
Likely Net Gain: +73
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Possible Changes:
CO 9 (2008 Margin: 9%)
IA 6 (2008 Margin: 9%)
NV 6 (2008 Margin: 12%)
NH 4 (2008 Margin: 9%)
NM 5 (2008 Margin: 15%)
PA 20 (2008 Margin: 11%)
VA 13 (2008 Margin: 7%)

Possible Max Gain: +63
Required Gain: +20
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