Tuesday, August 17, 2004

Gerry Dales, purveyor of the Electoral College Breakdown ’04 site, posted an enlightening article for all those of you who are reading the polls and thinking Botox has this horse race locked up (that means you, lefty in-laws).

The first convention ended. The second, approaching. Individual state polls agreed that the challenger was in a commanding position. Key battleground states such as Oregon, Missouri, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Florida, New Hampshire, and Iowa were all polling very well for him. To a lesser degree, so were West Virginia, Maine, and Arkansas. Washington was in his ledger. So was Michigan, and Ohio, and Minnesota.

An extremely dire set of circumstances, indeed. By the ECB scorecard, the challenger had over 300 electoral votes heading his way. His opponent, despite having administration powers to assist his campaign, only had about 150 electoral votes in his ledger.

The date was August 18th, 2000. As it happened, Al Gore made a race of it anyways.

In a nutshell, his conclusion, based on an in-depth review of the post-Democratic Convention state polls, is that the race is far from over. Reading further into the analysis, one can also make the case that Botox may have already peaked. Check out the whole article for yourself.

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