Friday, July 23, 2004

Polls, polls, polls.  What to make of the July poll bump, or lack thereof, for Kerry/Edwards (henceforth referred to as the Botox/BoyToy ticket) as they head to the Democratic Convention in Bean Town?

All conjecture and ruminations aside (the guys at served up a thorough analysis yesterday), here’s what’s transpired since Botox pinned the fragrant VP corsage on BoyToy:

  1. Botox/BoyToy is leading Bush/Cheney by an average 2-3 point margin, well within the standard 4%-5% statistical margin of error.  This represents a net VP honeymoon bounce of 0-5 points, depending on which poll set turns your crank. 
  2. Despite outspending Bush by between $20 and $30 million on TV ads in all of the key battleground states in May and June, Botox was unable to dent the President’s Job Approval stats, which still hover in the high 40’s.
  3. Botox/BoyToy pulled ads from the airwaves in Arizona, Missouri and all across the South, clearly conceding defeat on those fronts for the time being.
  4. Sensing weakness, Botox/BoyToy was forced to commit valuable ad dollars to shore up support from the all important, burgeoning Hispanic vote.
  5. BoyToy’s Southern charm and sex appeal (Sexiest Man in D.C™, ladies!), which was supposed to put several Southern states “in play”, have fallen flat with the Dixie set.  Even in BoyToy’s home state of North Carolina, Bush/Cheney’s poll lead has actually widened in the past few weeks.

Given all the evidence of apparent vulnerability in the Botox/BoyToy camp, does this sound like a ticket that’s about to break a tight White House race wide open after the convention next week?  I beg to differ.  Then again, I could be dead wrong.  Maybe having Ben Affleck at the podium, fresh off his victory at the California State Poker Championships, will be enough to secure the fickle swing voters. 

Swing voters do like poker, don’t they?


At 7/29/2004 2:14 PM, Blogger Tony P. said...

I must say that I agree with all your points. I expected "Botox" to get a bigger bump from picking "BoyToy" as well and was surprised when they actually lost ground in NC. I can't wait to see the numbers post-convention. For all the talk about no-bashing Bush, there have quite a few hammers swung this week, and with the ratings that have been coming in, it's easy to see that the public is ignoring them in droves.

Prediction -- Unless he hits a grand slam tonight (unlikley, I think) Kerry comes out of the week with less than a 5-point lead. And I wouldn't be surprised at all if the numbers don't move a bit.

At 7/30/2004 11:36 AM, Blogger Tony P. said...

By the way, ACE, thanks for the link to Real Clear Politics. That's a fabulous site and one I didn't know about.


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